(Musings of your humble servant at Rerum Novarum)
[Explanatory Note: Most of this was written before General Powell's revelations to the UN. I have therefore sought to not include Powell's evidences in this analysis as a way of showing that they are not intrinsically necessary to argue for war with Iraq - ISM 2/06/03]
I was wading my way through perhaps the best series of arguments for not going to war - as posted by Eve Tushnet
Saddam Hussein is an evil dictator who has violated UN decrees. This is absolutely, 100% true, and doesn't tell us anything about whether we should go to war.
I am about to do something I never thought I would do and that is quote liberally from UN sources. First of all, Miss Tushnet agrees that Saddam has violated UN decrees. What she does not point out though - presumably she is not aware of this - is specifically what decrees Saddam has continually flouted. Whether we like it or not, we agreed to go in with the UN on the Gulf War and they were the legislative body that sought to secure a ceasefire. I will quote from one of the longest UN resolutions in recent memory (if ever). However, first I need to set this up properly so here goes.
There are several headings that this thesis falls under. I will start with the section on chemical weapons. The primary resolution governing the ceasefire mentions the following in this regard:
Conscious...of the statements by Iraq threatening to use weapons in violation of its obligations under the Geneva Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or Other Gases, and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare, signed at Geneva on 17 June 1925, and of its prior use of chemical weapons and affirming that grave consequences would follow any further use by Iraq of such weapons,
Recalling that Iraq has subscribed to the Declaration adopted by all States participating in the Conference of States Parties to the 1925 Geneva Protocol and Other Interested States, held in Paris from 7 to 11 January 1989, establishing the objective of universal elimination of chemical and biological weapons,
Recalling also that Iraq has signed the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction, of 10 April 1972,
It is worth noting that one of the provisions in this Charter specified that Each State Party to this Convention undertakes never in any circumstance to develop, produce, stockpile or otherwise acquire or retain: Microbial or other biological agents, or toxins whatever their origin or method of production, of types and in quantities that have no justification for prophylactic, protective or other peaceful purposes; Weapons, equipment or means of delivery designed to use such agents or toxins for hostile purposes or in armed conflict. Iraq signed this agreement and has for twelve years (or longer) been flagrantly violating it. (They even used chemical weapons on the Kurds in violation of this Charter.) But there is more.
Noting the importance of Iraq ratifying this Convention,
Noting moreover the importance of all States adhering to this Convention and encouraging its forthcoming Review Conference to reinforce the authority, efficiency and universal scope of the convention,
Need I remind the reader that Saddam in using mustard gas in the late 1980s violated the Geneva Protocol which Iraq signed back on Sept. 8, 1931??? That is the first piece of justification for militarily disarming him. If he does not respect his own people, why should we expect him to treat us or anyone else any better - should he develop the capability to launch weapons of mass destruction (WMD)??? Moving on with the resolution.
Recalling the objective of the establishment of a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the region of the Middle East,
Need I remind the readers that Saddam's attempts to develop nuclear capabilities is in continual violation of the aforementioned UN objective.
Conscious of the threat that all weapons of mass destruction pose to peace and security in the area and of the need to work towards the establishment in the Middle East of a zone free of such weapons,
Ditto to my previous comments.
Stressing the importance of an early conclusion by the Conference on Disarmament of its work on a Convention on the Universal Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and of universal adherence thereto,
Aware of the use by Iraq of ballistic missiles in unprovoked attacks and therefore of the need to take specific measures in regard to such missiles located in Iraq,
Concerned by the reports in the hands of Member States that Iraq has attempted to acquire materials for a nuclear-weapons programme contrary to its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of 1 July 1968,
Another treaty violated by Iraq. Part of this treaty specified that Each non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty undertakes not to receive the transfer from any transferor whatsoever of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices or of control over such weapons or explosive devices directly, or indirectly; not to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices; and not to seek or receive any assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices. This is another significant treaty that they violated. Indeed they violated this one as early as the late 1970's when they constructed a nuclear reactor which - thankfully - Israel destroyed in 1981. Since that time, they have resorted to more secretive ways of acquiring materials for nuclear weapons and the treaty above expressly forbids this practice both in what I noted above.
Now this treaty is not set in stone for there is an out clause; however it specifies that Each Party shall in exercising its national sovereignty have the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country. It shall give notice of such withdrawal to all other Parties to the Treaty and to the United Nations Security Council three months in advance. Such notice shall include a statement of the extraordinary events it regards as having jeopardized its supreme interests. Hussein has never sought out of this treaty by the legitimate means allowed; therefore, he is in clear and unmistakable breach of it.
Now let us see, they have (i) violated the Geneva Protocol of 1925 - which they entered into in 1931 and they have gone against the "Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction, of 10 April 1972". (A pretty self-explanatory piece of legislation.) Further still, they have (iii) violated their obligations under the "Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of 1 July 1968". They would be in violation even if they had never built a nuclear weapon but only had the parts to build one - or sought to acquire these parts thereof.
So we have three breaches of international accords that Iraq signed and thereby is expected to comply with. And this resolution "invited" Iraq to reaffirm their adherence to these previously signed agreements as well as noted the following "decisions" to be made:
8. Decides that Iraq shall unconditionally accept the destruction, removal, or rendering harmless, under international supervision, of:
(a) All chemical and biological weapons and all stocks of agents and all related subsystems and components and all research, development, support and manufacturing facilities;
(b) All ballistic missiles with a range greater than 150 kilometres and related major parts, and repair and production facilities;
This is why Iraq's clear failure to account for stockpiles of chemical weapons is a violation of three previous agreements but also of this resolution. (More on the latter in a while.)
9. Decides, for the implementation of paragraph 8 above, the following:
(a) Iraq shall submit to the Secretary-General, within fifteen days of the adoption of the present resolution, a declaration of the locations, amounts and types of all items specified in paragraph 8 and agree to urgent, on-site inspection as specified below;
(b) The Secretary-General, in consultation with the appropriate Governments and, where appropriate, with the Director-General of the World Health Organization, within forty-five days of the passage of the present resolution, shall develop, and submit to the Council for approval, a plan calling for the completion of the following acts within forty-five days of such approval:
(i) The forming of a Special Commission, which shall carry out immediate on-site inspection of Iraq's biological, chemical and missile capabilities, based on Iraq's declarations and the designation of any additional locations by the Special Commission itself;
(ii) The yielding by Iraq of possession to the Special Commission for destruction, removal or rendering harmless, taking into account the requirements of public safety, of all items specified under paragraph 8 (a) above, including items at the additional locations designated by the Special Commission under paragraph 9 (b) (i) above and the destruction by Iraq, under the supervision of the Special Commission, of all its missile capabilities, including launchers, as specified under paragraph 8 (b) above;
What about those empty missile canisters found last month??? Are they somehow exempt from destruction of ALL their offensive missile capabilities??? I think not for if (i) you have missile canisters then (ii) you can put chemicals or other weapons in them and (iii) you have a weapon of mass destruction. This is why Hans "Inspector Clueso" Blix's B grade for Iraq was in and of itself additional justification for military action: because the resolution does not allow for grading on a curve. It is either completely comply or be in breach: pass or fail in other words.
(iii) The provision by the Special Commission of the assistance and cooperation to the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency required in paragraphs 12 and 13 below;
Here are paragraphs 12 and 13:
12. Decides that Iraq shall unconditionally agree not to acquire or develop nuclear weapons or nuclear-weapons-usable material or any subsystems or components or any research, development, support or manufacturing facilities related to the above; to submit to the Secretary-General and the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency within fifteen days of the adoption of the present resolution a declaration of the locations, amounts, and types of all items specified above; to place all of its nuclear-weapons-usable materials under the exclusive control, for custody and removal, of the International Atomic Energy Agency, with the assistance and cooperation of the Special Commission as provided for in the plan of the Secretary-General discussed in paragraph 9 (b) above;
Do not be fooled by the mention of nuclear weapons here. The resolution already covered chemical and biological weapons in paragraphs 8 and 9 above. Thus, even without proof of nuclear capabilities, Iraq is already in breach of three international treaties that they signed.
to accept, in accordance with the arrangements provided for in paragraph 13 below, urgent on-site inspection and the destruction, removal or rendering harmless as appropriate of all items specified above; and to accept the plan discussed in paragraph 13 below for the future ongoing monitoring and verification of its compliance with these undertakings;
It is clear by Blix's B grade that Iraq still has some of the items of the above list. Otherwise they would have an A grade and we would not be talking about going to war. Chalk this up as another area that Iraq has failed in.
13. Requests the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, through the Secretary-General, with the assistance and cooperation of the Special Commission as provided for in the plan of the Secretary-General in paragraph 9 (b) above, to carry out immediate on-site inspection of Iraq's nuclear capabilities based on Iraq's declarations and the designation of any additional locations by the Special Commission; to develop a plan for submission to the Security Council within forty-five days calling for the destruction, removal, or rendering harmless as appropriate of all items listed in paragraph 12 above; to carry out the plan within forty-five days following approval by the Security Council; and to develop a plan, taking into account the rights and obligations of Iraq under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of 1 July 1968, for the future ongoing monitoring and verification of Iraq's compliance with paragraph 12 above, including an inventory of all nuclear material in Iraq subject to the Agency's verification and inspections to confirm that Agency safeguards cover all relevant nuclear activities in Iraq, to be submitted to the Security Council for approval within one hundred and twenty days of the passage of the present resolution;
But lest we get ahead of ourselves here, paragraphs ten and eleven were skipped over to try to provide less bureaucratic jumble of the resolutions intentions. Here they are now:
10. Decides that Iraq shall unconditionally undertake not to use, develop, construct or acquire any of the items specified in paragraphs 8 and 9 above and requests the Secretary-General, in consultation with the Special Commission, to develop a plan for the future ongoing monitoring and verification of Iraq's compliance with this paragraph, to be submitted to the Security Council for approval within one hundred and twenty days of the passage of this resolution;
11. Invites Iraq to reaffirm unconditionally its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of 1 July 1968;
All of this bureaucratic blather is summed up in paragraph 14 which reads as follows:
14. Takes note that the actions to be taken by Iraq in paragraphs 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 13 of the present resolution represent steps towards the goal of establishing in the Middle East a zone free from weapons of mass destruction and all missiles for their delivery and the objective of a global ban on chemical weapons;
And what does the cease-fire depend on to remain in force??? The resolution itself specifies in one of its last paragraphs:
33. Declares that, upon official notification by Iraq to the Secretary-General and to the Security Council of its acceptance of the provisions above, a formal cease-fire is effective between Iraq and Kuwait and the Member States cooperating with Kuwait in accordance with resolution 678 (1990);
Let us now look at what resolution 678 said about this matter:
Mindful of its duties and responsibilities under the Charter of the United Nations for the maintenance and preservation of internationalnd peace and security,
Determined to secure full compliance with its decisions,
Acting under Chapter VII of the Charter,
1. Demands that Iraq comply fully with resolution 660 (1990) and all subsequent relevant resolutions, and decides, while maintaining all its decisions, to allow Iraq one final opportunity, as a pause of goodwil, to do so;
2. Authorizes Member States co-operating with the Government of Kuwait, unless Iraq on or before 15 January 1991 fully implements, as set forth in paragraph 1 above, the foregoing resolutions, to use all necessary means to uphold and implement resolution 660 (1990) and all subsequent relevant resolutions and to restore international peace and security in the area;
3. Requests all States to provide appropriate support for the actions undertaken in pursuance of paragraph 2 of the present resolution;
This is the the resolution that the UN gave that authorized the Gulf War start after January 15, 1991. So if resolution 687 stated that (i) a "ceasefire" would be declared contingent upon Iraq's compliance with the proscriptions of that resolution and if (ii) that ceasefire was to be interpreted in light of the previous resolution 678 and if (iii) resolution 678 declared the intention to use "all necessary means" to implement its resolutions and that resolution itself was a "last resort" then (iv) violation of the above proscriptions of resolution 687 would annul the ceasefire and call the member states to support action against Iraq.
Those who wonder why I have so heavily dealt with resolution 687 will note how prominantly it factors into resolution 1441 - Iraq's "last chance" to comply:
Resolution 1441
The fact is, Iraq has been and remains to this day guilty of three distinct breaches of resolution 687 - the resolution that established the provisions required for the ceasefire. The resolution itself even states that in its resolution 687 (1991) the Council declared that a ceasefire would be based on acceptance by Iraq of the provisions of that resolution, including the obligations on Iraq contained therein, So if the ceasefire is based on criteria that Iraq has continually failed to meet, then the ceasefire is effectively over. When a ceasefire is over, war resumes. That is how wars operate for better or for worse. And considering how atrocious the UN's trackrecord has been in recent years they need to make good on their endless barrage of resolutions here. If they fiddle with Hussein, they have forfeited any hope of being viable in the future. If they force Bush to commit US troops without their approval, they are exposed as a toothless tiger that lacks the backbone to enforce their own resolutions.
[P]ressing danger from a common enemy (that's us) is more likely to drive the otherwise quite distinct Saddam and Al Qaeda breeds of hideousness into alliance.
Eve, this is slippery slope argumentation. This is akin to saying "if we go to war against Hitler, the Americans of German descent might ally with the Fatherland against us". If your approach was taken in the 1930's and 1940's, we would either be speaking German today or be lampshades. Besides, we do not know if those fellas are not already in an alliance.
I think it's a given that Saddam would have to be crazy to actually nuke us or Israel. Forget about turning the desert to glass--we'd turn him to glass. He'd be a shadow burnt onto a palace wall.
But (to turn your previous argument against you) would that not get Al Queda to come after us??? What further proof would they need that we are The Great Satan than if we nuked Iraq??? And it even would not matter if Hussein nuked someone first, he would be doing "Allah's work" and we would be tools of the devil in their view. In short, it would be a lose-lose situation for us.
This is why a lot of the pro-war arguments rest on the belief that Saddam Hussein is deranged and/or he is seeking a glorious death.
My arguments are that he is in material breach, has been for over twelve years (of UN resolutions: if we count international accords then we could go back to at least 1979 if not earlier), and we cannot continue to make a mockery of the notion of "keeping the peace" if all we issue to this guy is papers saying "this is your last warning". At some point that statement has to be treated like it means what it says. Besides, do you honestly think Hussein has not worked out contingency plans for these kinds of events??? The man was/is a student of Joseph Stalin.
Now you may want to claim that we are to some extent responsible for what has transpired with Hussein. I would of course not dispute this notion at all. If you recall, it was out of fear that another fellow would come up in the Bath party to replace Hussein who was even worse than him which is one reason that they did not try to finish Hussein in 1991. So we have gotten to where we are with him under the same premises as you are now seeking to justify not going to war. So now we have (i) left Hussein in power out of fear in 1991 (ii) watched him make a fool out of us and the international community - including three flagrant violations of international weapons accords that Iraq signed. (Two for chemical weapons and one for nuclear weapons.) And now he has gotten to where he is because of our fear of what the rest of the Middle East would do if we finished the job and (iii) he is from all appearances manufacturing chemical weapons and intends to manufacture a nuclear device. Now you want to hold out further out of fear.
I am sorry Eve, but this is how we got to where we are now with him. I shudder to think of what he would have to do before you would view war with Iraq as the necessary evil it is at this time. I am afraid that too many people opposed to war are treating Hussein's chemical and nuclear weapon development aspirations as some sort of "price to pay" to keep the peace. Need I remind my readers of how Europe treated Hitler's annexation of Austria in 1938??? Please pardon those of us who do not want to give into this modern day anschluss and believe that we have gotten to the point where this fellow needs to be dealt with without any further delays.
Note:
{1} For those unfamiliar with various blogging terms, Miss Tushnet is using a term that denotes someone on the extreme edge of whatever their viewpoint happens to be. Such people are at times referred to as "barking moonbats". Someone once said that "the definition of a 'barking moonbat' is someone who sacrifices sanity for the sake of consistency". Whatever one wants to say about Hussein he is not a moonbat though Kim Jong II of North Korea may well be. But that is another story altogether.
