Saturday, September 22, 2018

More on Third Party Fantasies:
(From Facebook)

This sorta follows another recent thread on the subject of third parties and is from a comments thread discussion the other day. My words will be in regular coloured font with the words that prompted the original response italicized. Without further ado...

At some point, Libertarians need to realize that 45 years of never getting above 1.5% means they are NEVER going to win federal or state elections.

Gary Johnson won 3.27% of the popular vote in 2016.

I double checked and you were right on this.

Three times the previous record by a Libertarian candidate.

You have inadvertently made my point. That in a year like 2016 where both of the dominant parties truly scraped through the bottom of the barrel to nominate ghastly candidates, the Libertarians STILL could not compete. (And they got voters they are not ordinarily gonna get that year such as myself, my spouse, and a few others I managed to persuade not cause I was a huge Gary fan but mainly because the other choices were so damn awful he stood out by default.) The odds are as high as they are that in 2020 Libertarians are back below 1% again as usual no matter whom they nominate. At what point do they conclude that their party is an abysmal failure?

Ross Perot as an independent took 19% in 1992.

I remember that well as I was among the 19%.

There is room for third parties if the media portrays them as viable contenders

Here is the problem: they are not viable contenders. You have to be viable before you can be treated as such. Even the low threshold of 5% to qualify for federal election matching funds: they cannot even clear that. If you cannot even get 5% of the vote, how can anyone seriously consider you a viable candidate?

The only third party in the past 100 years to be viable was the Reform Party in 1992 which at that time consisted of Ross Perot. Because he vaulted above 5%, the Reform Party got federal matching funds to compete in 1996. Running when the economy was good and with a candidate with national recognition heading the ticket, they still could not get traction and slipped to about 8.6% of the vote. They however still cleared 5% so more federal matching funds. They then really got stupid and nominated Pat Buchanan and were destroyed. They still limp on life support to this day but they are functionally dead and irrelevant as a viable third party. No other party of the past hundred years even comes close to the viability that the Reform Party had between 1992 and 1999 and the Libertarians are not based on their history going to buck that trend anytime soon.

and if they are given the opportunity to debate.

Well, if you are not viable, you are not going to be given the opportunity to debate nor should you be. See what I said above about viability.

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The weather cools down
Pumpkins, leaves turn, football games 
Fall is finally here 
[Written just now]


Vatican Signs Potential Historic Deal With China on Bishops

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Monday, September 17, 2018

The one thing Trump can’t sell: A booming economy

For those of the #Trumpidian persuasion who wonder why many others are not so enthusiastic about this president, here is a key example of why: the economy is doing great but the president is ruining a fantastic election message for fall with his usual Twitter bullshit distractions with about seven weeks to go until Election Day 2018.

When you have the law, pound the law and when you have the facts, pound the facts. Its only when you have nothing that you pound the table which is why seeing the president squander a great midterm message to throw red meat at his rubes with his Twitter table pounding is so damn annoying!


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