Points to Ponder:

Yesterday was the 102nd anniversary of the Fatima appearance of 10/13/1917. I remember many devoted Fatima folks who were convinced the Blessed Virgin Mary would make an appearance to mark the 100th anniversary of the event but that never happened. I have long wondered if the biggest devotees of Fatima have not wondered as to why that was the case.

Having given this some thought, I strongly suspect that the reason why there was no anniversary appearance is that the BVM was none too pleased with those who claimed to honour and venerate her Fatima apparition (the foundation of which are repentance, conversion, and obedience) more than everyone else (essentially being More Fatima Than Thou™) while at the same time, being so blatantly and unrepentantly disobedient and disrespectful to her Son's Vicar.

DEBRA J. SAUNDERS: Whistling past the graveyard

Points to Ponder:

"...And now, though I might say much more about the prerogatives of the Holy Father, the visible head of the Church, I have said more than enough for the purpose which has led to my speaking about him at all. I have said that, like St. Peter, he is the Vicar of his Lord. He can judge, and he can acquit; he can pardon, and he can condemn; he can command and he can permit; he can forbid, and he can punish. He has a Supreme jurisdiction over the people of God. He can stop the ordinary course of sacramental mercies; he can excommunicate from the ordinary grace of redemption; and he can remove again the ban which he has inflicted. It is the rule of Christ's providence, that what His Vicar does in severity or in mercy upon earth, He Himself confirms in heaven. And in saying all this I have said enough for my purpose, because that purpose is to define our obligations to him. That is the point on which our Bishop has fixed our attention; 'our obligations to the Holy See;' and what need I say more to measure our own duty to it and to him who sits in it, than to say that in his administration of Christ's kingdom, in his religious acts, we must never oppose his will, or dispute his word, or criticise his policy, or shrink from his side? There are kings of the earth who have despotic authority, which their subjects obey indeed but disown in their hearts; but we must never murmur at that absolute rule which the Sovereign Pontiff has over us, because it is given to him by Christ, and, in obeying him, we are obeying his Lord. We must never suffer ourselves to doubt, that, in his government of the Church, he is guided by an intelligence more than human. His yoke is the yoke of Christ, he has the responsibility of his own acts, not we; and to his Lord must he render account, not to us. Even in secular matters it is ever safe to be on his side, dangerous to be on the side of his enemies. Our duty is,—not indeed to mix up Christ's Vicar with this or that party of men, because he in his high station is above all parties,—but to look at his formal deeds, and to follow him whither he goeth, and never to desert him, however we may be tried, but to defend him at all hazards, and against all comers, as a son would a father, and as a wife a husband, knowing that his cause is the cause of God. And so, as regards his successors, if we live to see them; it is our duty to give them in like manner our dutiful allegiance and our unfeigned service, and to follow them also whithersoever they go, having that same confidence that each in his turn and in his own day will do God's work and will, which we have felt in their predecessors, now taken away to their eternal reward..."  [St. John Henry Newman: From a Sermon (circa Oct. 7, 1866)]

Jane Fonda, 81, arrested for protesting climate change at the Capitol after citing Greta Thunberg as her inspiration
Good!

Opening Address To the Council

Points to Ponder:

Complaining not only ruins everybody else's day, it ruins the complainer's day, too. The more we complain, the more unhappy we get. [Dennis Prager]

On the Electoral College Map For 2020:
(Musings of your humble servant at Rerum Novarum)

This was compiled from comments posted to social media about three or four weeks ago.

Of the 538 electoral votes out there, 451 are already known. Well, 452 because whatever the polls say right now, Trump is not going to lose the one tossup electoral vote in Nebraska. So it starts off as follows:

Republicans -220 electoral votes
Democrats -232 electoral votes

I am assuming for a moment that the Democrat floor is 232 which is not a given either (as Minnesota and New Hampshire were very close last time and the Republicans have a lot more money to spend this time around). But let us make that presumption from the get-go, ok?

So starting with 220 electoral votes, Trump will follow the pattern of Republicans in 16 of the past 17 elections in the postwar period and retain Arizona and its 11 electoral votes. That puts his total at 231 electoral votes. Then there is Florida. Watch for the Republicans to dump a metric shit ton of money into Florida. Unlike in 2016 where the Democrats outspent the Republicans 3:1 the numbers will be reversed this time and the president will be helped by the lack of a primary contest meaning the Republicans can use all their money in a fashion befitting a general election and not worry about wasting any of it to fight off primary opponents as will be the case with whomever the Democrats nominate.

As has been the case in 13 of the past 17 elections in the postwar period, the Republicans will keep Florida and its 29 electoral votes. That brings the president's total to 260 electoral votes and a mere 10 away from what he would need to win re-election.

From there we have Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania representing 10 electoral votes, 16 electoral votes, and 20 electoral votes respectively and all of which Trump won in 2016. The Republicans would only need to grab one of those three to put the president at or over 270 electoral votes. By contrast, the Democrats would need to run the table there and win all three of them and with the lions share of their remaining field, that is not going to happen. Its conceivable that a Biden-Gabbard ticket could do it however but many Democrats seem insistent on nominating someone like Warren, Sanders, or Mayor Pete: none of whom would be successful in running that gauntlet with the radical nonsense they are spouting in these primaries and which the Republicans will tar and feather them with in a general election campaign.

As I said, this path is not a hard one at all. And the real kicker is this: it could be reached even if there was an overall nationwide five million deficit in the popular vote.

#######

Even if the Dems swung MI and PA back in 2020, they would still lose if they did not also swing WI. And as I said before, this assumes for the moment that Dems hold MN: a state they won with a mere 1.5% in 2016. The Republicans are going to dump some coin into that state this time to try and swing it and a few others which were barely contested last time which were a lot closer than many folks figured.

#######

You cannot base what will happen in presidential election years with what happens in midterms. Ask the Republicans who thought their wipeout of the Democrats in 2010 made winning in 2012 a certainty. Ask the Democrats who thought in 1998 that they were on their way to a threepeat in 2000 or who thought after 1986 that they were well positioned to win the presidency in 1988.

The bottom line is the party whose president is in power usually loses seats in midterm elections. The only exceptions to this rule in the past 90 odd years were 1934 and 2002 where the presidents party actually increased their presence in the House and Senate. In that light, what happened in 2018 was not unusual except for the fact that Republicans while losing roughly the average in House seats for a midterm correctional actually gained Senate seats last year. In short, the Republicans showed less overall weakness in 2018 (-41, +2) than the Democrats showed in 2010 (-63, -6).

#######

Ohio is slated as likely Republican in 2020. It has also been roughly twice as likely to go Republican (12 times) than Democrat (7 times) in presidential elections since 1944. Florida has gone Republican in 13 of the past 17 presidential elections and so strongly trends that way that even Obama in bucking that trend struggled to win Florida. (While Obama did win Florida in 2012, he won it by .88% and even in 2008 his margin of win was less than 3%.) You can expect the Republicans who will have a lot more money in 2020 than the Democrats to prioritize campaign spending in Florida and they will carpetbomb that state into submission next year. North Carolina and Georgia are Republican leans even more so than Minnesota and New Hampshire are for the Democrats. Arizona is open at the moment but as I said, when a state goes to one party in 16 of the past 17 elections, it is very rash to presume that trend will be bucked in 2020 -especially since the one time that trend was, the Democrats were running with the power of incumbency: something they will not have next year.

In short, incumbents always have an advantage in re-election and the Republicans have a very strong structural one in the electoral college right now. So much so that Trump could lose the popular vote by up to 5 million next year and still win the EC. None of this means he will win of course but those who rashly consign him to defeat without considering the actual numbers on these matters as well as the partisan voting index of states in play{1} could very easily find themselves come November of 2020 wondering what the hell happened to their supposed concrete certainties on these matters.

Note:

{1} State PVI's of 2020 Swing States:

Arizona: R+5, Colorado: D+1, Florida: R+2, Georgia: R+5, Michigan: D+1, Minnesota: D+1, Nevada: D+1, New Hampshire: EVEN,  North Carolina: R+3, Ohio: R+3, Pennsylvania: EVEN, Wisconsin: EVEN

As you can see, the swing state PVI's strongly favour the Republicans and once impenetrable Democrat strongholds like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are tossups while Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Nevada are a mere D+1 which is not much of a Democrat advantage and one easily wiped out if the GOP gets even a slight turnout advantage in those states next year.

UltraBriefly on the "Unanswered" Dubia:

My words will be in regular font.

The dubia Cardinals have entirely legitimate theological credentials yet the Pope still has yet to answer them.

The Dubia has been answered. Twice. By yours truly.

Here is the most recent answering if interested:

Revisiting the Controversial Dubia (circa March 21, 2019)

Points to Ponder:

Had we not faults of our own, we should take less pleasure in complaining of others. [Francois Fenelon]

Points to Ponder:

Tell General Howard I know his heart. What he told me before, I have it in my heart. I am tired of fighting. Our chiefs are killed; Looking Glass is dead, Too-hul-hul-sote is dead. The old men are all dead. It is the young men who say yes or no. He who led on the young men is dead. It is cold, and we have no blankets; the little children are freezing to death. My people, some of them, have run away to the hills, and have no blankets, no food. No one knows where they are—perhaps freezing to death. I want to have time to look for my children, to see how many I can find. Maybe I shall find them among the dead. Hear me, my chiefs! I am tired; my heart is sick and sad. From where the sun now stands, I will fight no more forever. [Chief Joseph (circa October 5, 1877)]

Seahawks 30 Rams 29: Winners and Losers from a Thursday night classic

If my words did glow with the gold of sunshine

And my tunes were played on the harp unstrung

Would you hear my voice come through the music

Would you hold it near as it were your own?

It's a hand-me-down, the thoughts are broken

Perhaps they're better left unsung

I don't know, don't really care

Let there be songs to fill the air

Ripple in still water

When there is no pebble tossed

Nor wind to blow

Reach out your hand if your cup be empty

If your cup is full may it be again

Let it be known there is a fountain

That was not made by the hands of men

There is a road, no simple highway

Between the dawn and the dark of night

And if you go no one may follow

That path is for your steps alone

Ripple in still water

When there is no pebble tossed

Nor wind to blow

You who choose to lead must follow

But if you fall you fall alone

If you should stand then who's to guide you?

If I knew the way I would take you home.

[Robert Hunter]

Media, the Left Have Pushed Trump Impeachment for 35 Months, Even Before Inauguration

I am not a fan of Mr. Trump as most everyone who has followed my stuff in various mediums online for a few years well knows. However, I also do not take this latest so-called "whistleblower" thing even remotely seriously either.

Why? Because these same clowns have been trying to push impeachment since before Mr. Trump was even sworn in. It was even being discussed on news networks before the Electoral College met to cast its votes. And there has been one attempted scam after another since November 9, 2016 undertaken by whining brats unable to accept the results of an election they did not like. It is why when (not if) the latest ploy blows up in their faces, I will laugh at them.

Mr. Trump is in many respects pathetic yes. But his opposition makes him look somewhat palatable by comparison. It did not have to be that way of course as Mr. Trump is an inherently vulnerable incumbent. But to beat him would require  both moderation as well as sanity: two traits nearly non-existent on the Democratic side right now. But I digress.

Cigar Thoughts, Game 4: Seahawks swoop into Cardinals’ nest, eat their worms, steal their eggs

In the attics of my life
Full of cloudy dreams; unreal
Full of tastes no tongue can know
And lights no eye can see

When there was no ear to hear
You sang to me

I have spent my life
Seeking all that's still unsung
Bent my ear to hear the tune
And closed my eyes to see

When there were no strings to play

You played to me

In the book of love's own dreams
Where all the print is blood
Where all the pages are my days
And all my lights grow old

When I had no wings to fly
You flew to me
You flew to me

In the secret space of dreams
Where I dreaming lay amazed
When the secrets all are told
And the petals all unfold

When there was no dream of mine
You dreamed of me. You dreamed of me.
[Robert Hunter]

A pistol shot at five o'clock
The bells of heaven ring
Tell me what you done it for
No I won't tell you a thing

Yesterday I begged you
Before I hit the ground
All I leave behind me
Is only what I found

If you can abide it
Let the hurdy gurdy play
Stranger ones have come by here
Before they flew away

I will not condemn you
Nor yet would I deny
I would ask the same of you
But failing, will not die

Take up your china doll
It's only fractured
And a little nervous from the fall
La la la la la la la. 
[Robert Hunter]

Democrats’ double standard on Ukraine

I seriously do not know about the whole Trump and Ukraine thing but I will say this: when the accusing side engages in the same thing themselves that they now are squawking about impeachment on, I cannot take them seriously for a moment no matter what I think of Trump!

Robert Hunter, Grateful Dead Collaborator and Lyricist, Dead at 78

"Fare you well, my honey, fare you well my only true one.
All the birds that were singing are flown, except you alone.

Going to leave this brokedown palace,
On my hand and my knees, I will roll, roll, roll.
Make myself a bed by the waterside,
In my time, in my time, I will roll, roll roll.

In a bed, in a bed, by the waterside I will lay my head.
Listen to the river sing sweet songs, to rock my soul..."

#RestInPeace

Seahawks' DK Metcalf is the big receiver Pete Carroll always wanted

For those who need an update on these things, the Democratic Presidential field is down to 19 candidates now. Here is a brief list of those who have dropped out so far:

Richard Ojeda (January 25, 2019)
Eric Swalwell (July 8, 2019)
Mike Gravel (August 6, 2019)
John Hinckenlooper (August 15, 2019)
Jay Inslee (August 21, 2019)
Seth Moulton (August 23, 2019)
Kirsten Gillibrand (August 28, 2019)
Bill de Blasio (September 20, 2019)