Briefly on Non-Dogmatic Statements of Fact:
My words will be in regular font.
No. when the Church rules that the conditions do not exist in these times, claiming that they do is disobedience.
You are ascribing to the Church a power beyond its competence. There is no special protection by the Holy Spirit when it comes to non dogmatic statements of fact. Period.
Pretending there is such a charism is basically is to fulfill William Gladstones nineteenth century caricature of Catholics as mind numbed robots completely dependent on Rome. The church is no more qualified to pronounce on the efficacy of modern penal systems than she is on the best way to build a dam, design a ship, conduct meteorological experiments, or prepare breakfast.
Prudential judgment helps us determine *how* to best obey Church teaching, not *whether* to obey it.
Prudential judgement is subjective. It is also not free from possible errors as even the Vatican admits in Donum Veritatis.{1} It is certainly erroneous to automatically dismiss any and all prudential judgments of the Church the way many do. But it is no less erroneous to treat every prudential judgment as if it is carved on stone tablets from Mt. Sinai as you are in essence doing. The truth is between the Scylla of frequent and flagrant disobedience and the Charybdis of your kind of faith asphyxiating neo-ultramontanism.
Note:
{1} For further reading on this and other magisterial matters, see the following thread:
On the Magisterium of the Catholic Church, Obedience, and the Requirements of Faithful Catholics